Japan: Tropical log demand projections

Fonte:
ITTO's Tropical Timber Market Report
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The Japan South Sea Lumber Conference held a regular meeting to assess the likely demand for tropical timber in 2011.

The forecast demand for logs in 2011 is 529,000 cu.m., 5.5% less than in 2010. The forecast for plywood demand is 440,000 cu.m., almost 6% down on the level in 2010 while for sawnwood the forecast is for a demand level of 89,000 cu.m, 3% less than in 2010.

The demand for tropical logs is forecast to be less than last year because so many plywood mills have been damaged. Even if the unaffected mills increase production as expected their consumption will not be sufficient to bring production up to 2010 levels.

Sarawak log prices levelling out
Weather conditions have been improving in Sarawak allowing logging operations to get back to normal and log production is increasing. As log supply has improved, and as the orders for plywood are levelling off, log prices seem to have reached their peak reports the JLR.

Sarawak Meranti regular is selling at US$350-360 per cu.m FOB, unchanged now for two months. Meranti small logs are priced at US$320-330 per cu.m and super small priced at between US$300-310 per cu.m. In contrast to the situation in Sarawak, the JLR is reporting that the situation is rather different for log exporters in Sabah as they have strong order books, because of this log prices remain firm. Kapur prices are at US$400 per cu.m FOB (floaters and sinkers).

Slow plywood market
Sales of tropical plywood in Japan are slow says the JLR because a large quantity of plywood arrived this month. The domestic mills are still struggling to increase wholesale prices to compensate for the high cost of imported logs.

Current prices of Sarawak Meranti regular logs in the Japanese market are Yen 9,300 per koku CIF, Yen 1,000 per koku higher than in December last year.

JLIA gets new chairman
The Japan Lumber Importers Association held its general meeting in early June and elected Mr. M. Ogawa of Sojitz Corporation as it new chairman. The JLR reports that Mr. Ogawa said that the Association will continue to build a strong relationship with forest products groups in SE Asia, Russia, N. America and Europe to establish a steady import of wood products. The meeting heard that in the year to March 2011 imports of certified wood accounted for 41% of all imports up 5% on the previous year.

Samco makes plantation plywood
The Indonesian group Samco has been developing the use of plantation logs for plywood production. The group apparently uses plantation Pinus merkusii, the Sumatran Pine and falcata for cores and Meranti for the face and back.

The JLR reports that, currently, about 70% of the mill output is marketed domestically with the balance 30% being shipped to Japan.

Japan Log and Sawnwood Prices in Japan
Logs for Ply Manufacture, CIF
Meranti (Hill, Sarawak)
Yen per Koku
(koku=0.278 m3)
Medium Mixed
9,200
Standard Mixed
9,400
Small Log (SM60%, SSM40%)  
9,300
Taun, Calophyllum, others (PNG)
8,000
Mixed light hardwood, G3/4 grade (PNG)
-
Keruing MQ & up (Sarawak)
12,000
Kapur MQ & up (Sarawak)
11,500
Logs for Sawmilling, CIF
Yen per Koku
Melapi (Sarawak) High Select
12,500
Agathis (Sarawak) High Select
-
Lumber, FOB
Yen per m3
White Seraya (Sabah) 24x150mm, 4m, Grade 1
150,000
Mixed Seraya, Sangi 24x48mm, 1.8-4m, S2S
60,000

Wholesale Prices (Tokyo)
Indonesian & Malaysian Plywood Size (mm)
May
 June
(¥ per sheet)
2.4mm (thin plywood, F 4star, type 2 ) 920 X 1830 380-410
380-410
3.7mm (med. Thickness, F 4star, type1) 910 X 1820
540-600
540-600
5.2mm (med. Thickness, F 4star, type 1) 910 X 1820
640-720
640-720
12mm for foundation (F 4star, special) 910 X 1820
1300
1300
12mm concrete-form ply (JAS) 900 X 1800
1220
1200
12m coated concrete-form ply (JAS) 900 X 1800
1300
1300
11.5mm flooring board 945 X 1840
1350-1400
1400
3.6mm baseboard for overlays (OVL) 1230 X 2440
880
900
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